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April 17, 2024

Multifamily Market Outlook: Ahead of the Curve

In the 2024 CBRE Multifamily Market Outlook, the anticipation of a historic surge in new apartment supply is creating significant waves in the industry. Projections suggest the delivery of 440,000 units, signaling a pivotal moment that could lead to a return to stabilized prices and improved affordability within the multifamily sector.

Notable areas, including Chicago, Washington D.C., and Las Vegas, are expected to experience an increase in supply. While this surge in new developments could have an impact on rental prices in these regions, there are still markets grappling with a persistent supply and demand imbalance. The deterrent for first-time homebuyers, driven by soaring housing costs, continues to contribute to the upward trajectory of rental prices in certain areas.

Navigating this complex landscape requires a keen understanding of regional dynamics, supply and demand nuances, and the potential impact of interest rate fluctuations. The 2024 outlook presents a multifaceted scenario, with historic supply surges, adjustments in rental prices, and promising opportunities in specific market segments.

As interest rates are forecasted to stabilize in the mid to late part of 2024, the multifamily market is poised for adjustments in cap rates and property values. According to Freddie Mac, there is a positive yet slightly weaker forecast for multifamily demand compared to pre-pandemic levels, with a baseline growth rent growth projection of 2.5%. This indicates a steady but moderated growth in the sector. 

Notably, the Sunbelt region states, as highlighted by NAR’s net migration map, experienced a remarkable 50%+ net increase in migration during 2022. This underscores an apparent imbalance in supply and demand, posing both challenges and opportunities in these high migration areas.

 

“Multifamily and industrial assets will be most favored by investors in 2024. Both property types have relatively strong fundamentals (demand, vacancy, rent growth, etc.) and long-term tailwinds that bolster their attractiveness.”
– Richard Barkham & Julie Whelan CBRE 2024 U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook

 

Sources: Vance, Matthew, and Travis Deese. U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook 2024 | CBRE, www.cbre.com/insights/books/us-real-estate-market-outlook-2024. Accessed 19 Jan. 2024. Hoffmann, Sara, and Michael Donnelly. “2024 Multifamily Outlook.” Multifamily – Freddie Mac, 19 Dec. 2023, mf.freddiemac.com/research/outlook/20231219-2024-multifamily-outlook. “Research and Statistics.” www.Nar.Realtor, 10 May 2017, https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics